Risk Assessment of Maize Yield Losses in Gansu Province Based on Spatial Econometric Analysis

The frequent occurrence of meteorological disasters in China has caused huge losses to agriculture. Risk assessment serves as a bridge from disaster crisis management risk management. Therefore, it is necessary carry out refined comprehensive typical areas. However, several limitations remain the loss research, such too coarse resolution and single indicator. Additionally, less research examined geographical information on clustering barycenter migration, well temporal sustainability trends. Consequently, significant unearth identify spatial evolution pattern crop risk. For this reason, we evaluated corn production Gansu Province. First, based maize yield data, evaluation index system was constructed using characteristics variation trends, fluctuations, extreme values losses. Then, distribution patterns risks county scale Province were determined analysis climate diagnosis technology. results show that there large interdecadal fluctuation In 1980s, 1990s, 2000s, 2010s, average reduction rates −11.8%, −12.6%, −8.7%, −8.5%, proportions counties with severe 34.8%, 44.4%, 20.8%, 9.7%, respectively. Second, most belong medium-low or low-risk areas for production. High-risk are primarily located eastern southern Gansu, whereas mostly found along Hexi Corridor. Third, indicators exhibit some aggregation. Jiuquan region falls within low-low-risk aggregation zone. contrast, Qingyang high-high zone gradual expansion trend. Four, each indicator’s migrates over complicated path, but direction distance vary considerably. south-northwest-southeast trajectory, albeit at shorter distance. Five, proportion medium, medium-severe, severe, total tended decline. addition, annual precipitation significantly very correlated level. can guide agricultural processes all levels, government prevention.